A denominational staff member recently asked me: “I have a consultation with a church next Monday, and they want me to address ways to estimate church giving for the next year.”
Can you predict the future? That is essentially what the church is asking. No one can predict with 100% accuracy where any church’s giving will be for this year. However, now more than ever, churches can better predict their giving outcomes.
At OnlineGiving.org, we have worked hard to provide our church partners with answers to questions like these. We can’t predict the future with 100% accuracy, but we can give you a realistic view, which helps with budget planning and execution.
For twenty-five years, I have studied church giving patterns of many of the top 100 churches in size and churches running 100 in attendance. My consultation is driven largely by the data I draw from a church’s past giving. That data shows me past trends that may be either a blessing in the future or a curse. Data helps shape our financial strategies, ensuring that the money you need in July for Student Camp is in the bank when needed. Collecting data on past giving is crucial for any church serious about managing its financial future. I love data, but it is limited in estimating future giving.
My denominational buddy has ten years of data from the church asking for an estimate of giving. He was astute enough to ask, “What other advice can you give me that will help them estimate giving for the coming year?” I responded that looking back at their 10-year giving history is certainly a start, but it’s a look at history, not the future.
When I look at past data, I want to see if there are trends that are observable and thus require more probing. Numbers don't tell us the complete story but allow us to ask questions. So, lookbacks indicate growth or trouble, but we must probe for the reasons behind that growth or decline. So, again, having data is important, but it has limitations, especially when it comes to predicting future giving.
Today, with our platform, you can track your data in real time. Our Dashboard instantly gives you information on key metrics, such as new donors, lapsed donors, and future scheduled giving. These features allow you to notice trends quickly. Here is a post that shares more about this at: https://www.onlinegiving.org/support/not-your-fathers-dashboard
While no one can predict with 100% accuracy, let me share with you a strategy you can easily employ to improve your predictive ability.
Every church I counsel now receives half or more of its annual offering digitally. I’ve worked with churches that receive 90% digitally. This is our new normal. Based upon this, I have an answer for any church wanting to predict the future of its giving. The only real way to project future giving accurately is to track the church’s online giving that is set up to be recurring. Let me illustrate.
Let’s say you are currently seeing 50% of all gifts come digitally. Then, let’s say you see an average of about 25% of those gifts set up as recurring gifts. You thus know, with good reason, that the 25% of recurring gifts will hit your offering plate in the coming months. As a stewardship consultant, that is like a guaranteed 25% that I can build on. What if recurring giving increased to greater percentages? This is one of the great values of automated giving: a better estimate of future giving, allowing you to better manage your finances. The other great value is that recurring giving will increase your revenue. Come July, when your members are on vacation; their offering will still hit your digital offering plate.
This is why it is so important to encourage your members to sign up to make their gift a recurring ACH donation. ACH? Here is a post that shares with you more about this key giving strategy: https://www.onlinegiving.org/support/maximize-gifts-and-reduce-rates-with-ach
With our Dashboard’s Future Scheduled Giving feature, you can track the growth of recurring giving. Any church administrator will tell you the value of that up-to-date information. Here is a post that shares more about how our platform can help better predict your giving future:
https://www.onlinegiving.org/support/the-importance-of-knowing-your-giving-metrics
Can we predict the future? No, but our platform can help you better estimate your future giving, which will help you better manage your finances. Contact us today at (615) 206-4000 or email us at support@onlinegiving.org.
The Stewardship Coach
Can you predict the future of giving at your church? We work hard to provide our church partners with answers to such tough questions. Our tools provide churches with a realistic view of their giving future, helping with budget planning and execution.https://t.co/ymW1hxsWQG pic.twitter.com/VTfiNqSQ0h
— Online Giving (@onlinegivingorg) March 14, 2024